Harness Racing Tips
Below are some things to consider when betting on harness
racing and some simple tactics which may be helpful to a new
bettor:
1. The Driver.
Drivers, much as other athletes, possess varying amounts of
ability, and even the good ones have slumps. Fortunately, race
tracks keep records of how a driver performs. Next to his or her
name, you'll find statistics about their performance at the
given track. For example, you might see something like this:
RAUL MENDOZA red-gr-blu (112-23-15-11-.313)
Simply stated, driver Mendoza (who wears red, green and blue
colors) has driven in 112 races, winning 23 of them, finishing
second 15 times, and finishing third 11 times. His "Universal
Driver Rating" -- a number calculated like a batting average --
is .313. Any number over .300 is considered excellent. At most
racing locations, the program will include a listing of the
track's leading drivers. The drivers may be listed by the
Universal Driver Rating (UDR), or by the total number of wins.
The most useful piece of information in the driver statistics is
a driver's winning percentage. The drivers who can "get 'em home
first" at the highest rate should merit extra handicapping
points. A horse that receives a switch from an unranked driver
to a top-rate pilot should get further handicapping points.
Often, though, the top drivers are bet heavily by the public,
resulting in odds lower than what the horse's chances might
truly warrant. Also, drivers not listed among the leaders may
still qualify as a possible bet if the horse passes other
handicapping tests, AND the unranked driver has driven the horse
successfully in the past. Top trainers, sometimes listed in your
program, usually have their horses in peak condition and ready
to win. As with drivers, isolate the trainers who have a high
win percentage. A horse "claimed" in his last start (the "c" or
"z" after the claiming price shows a claim) and moving into a
top trainer's care may show dramatic improvement for his new
stable.
2. Consistency.
Consistency is perhaps the most outstanding characteristic of
the standard bred horse. Good horses are able to perform well,
week after week. Most racing programs will show records of these
performances. In the upper left-hand portion of each horse's
past performances, you'll see the fastest winning mile of the
year listed, the number of starts, wins, seconds, thirds, and
money won for the present and past years.
3. Class.
Harness horses tend to race against other horses of comparable
ability, and it's the job of the race secretary to design races
that will bring together well-matched and competitive fields.
Race types fall into various "classes," such as: conditioned
races (grouping done by the horses' earnings and other factors);
claiming races (grouping done by the estimated value of the
horses); or "feature" events (Open, Invitation, Stakes, etc.).
The best way to judge whether a horse is moving "up" or "down"
in class is to compare the purse of the race in question with
the present race's purse. Within a given track's class
structure, the purse is often a useful barometer; however,
comparing purses from one track to another is a less reliable
guide. Horses dropping in class are generally a good bet -- if
they meet other handicapping criteria. An edge in class is worth
one or two handicapping points, as horses dropping in class are
meeting softer competition tonight. Horses moving up, however,
may still rate consideration if they have been winning
impressively or posting fast times while facing horses in a
lower class. Younger horses who have made only a few starts also
may move in class readily, as their true class might not yet be
established.
4. Post Position.
Generally speaking, the inside post positions (numbers one
through four) are an advantage, especially on half-mile tracks.
Horses who do not have good post position risk the possibility
of being "parked out" (marked by the "0" symbol in the program)
and losing considerable ground while racing on the turns. The
inside post position bias is most pronounced on half-mile
tracks, where there is a short distance between the start and
first turn. The bias still exists on five-eighths-mile and mile
tracks, but to a lesser extent. Most programs list the number of
winners coming from each position, making the job of evaluating
post positions easy. It's also important to check the racing
style of a horse and figure out his likely racing position
throughout the mile. If there are many horses whose past
performance show early speed in a race, they may wear themselves
out fighting among themselves, and a fast-finishing horse may
catch them before the wire Similarly, a good come-from-behind
horse from a bad post position may find other fast finishers in
a better position than he is when he starts to make his move.
That horse may not be able to make up enough ground on his
rivals to win. Finally, a horse who raced either spectacularly
or poorly from a bad post position last week may have a better
chance of winning from an inside starting slot tonight.
5. Time.
An important handicapping concept to understand is that the
final time posted by a horse is not as important as his
individual quarter-mile times. For example, "Able Almahurst" may
race in a trailing position in a fast-paced race and merely
finish in average time, but record a fast victory due to the
fast early pace. "Baker Hanover," meanwhile, may trail far
behind a slow pace and finish very rapidly, but not gain much
ground during a fast final quarter. Yet ... "Baker" may well be
sharper than "Able!" A horse that "does work" (races on the lead
or outside in a challenging position, or close strongly) in a
fast quarter should get extra points in handicapping. Although
fractional times are more important than final time, it is a
fact that some horses are just faster than others. It is
important to check how fast horses have been clocked in recent
races, although the swiftest ones, and ones who are merely
"sucked along" (stayed behind other horses in the pack), are
often over-bet by the public. Times posted at other tracks may
be adjusted, when handicapping, by checking the "Comparative
Speed Ratings" in the program. Take the difference between the
ratings and add or subtract the result to the time posted at the
other track. It will show what the time might have been if the
race had been at the track where the horse is on the present
night.
6. Form.
Like any other athlete, a harness horse's performances cross
peaks and valleys, but most every race winner has shown that
he's been racing at or near top "form." In the most recent races
listed for each horse in the racing program, the running
positions (where the horse was in a race: 1st, 6th, etc.) are
the indicators of form. Horses tend to fall into two broad
categories: those that race on or near the lead, and those that
race farther back and come on strongly at the finish.
Front-running horses displaying good form show that they can
hold the lead all the way, while the latter type horses show
come-from-behind rushes to either win or just miss. Changes in
form can be spotted by comparing race lines week to week. Once a
front-runner's past performance lines start to show he can't
hold the lead all the way, he's going "off form." But when each
line shows he's getting closer to going "wire-to-wire," he's
coming back into form...and is worth a bet. Sometimes, though,
what appears to be a downward swing in form may not be that at
all. A dull-appearing performance may be the result of an "off"
track (sloppy, muddy, etc.), interference, show fractional
times, or simply of having raced against horses of superior
class. Horses must also race frequently to keep their form, and
they compete on an average of every six to ten days. Long
layoffs are almost always a bad sign.
|
